Game Seven: Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers (Series tied at 3)
Time: 8:00 PM EST
Location: Amerant Arena
How to Watch: ABC, ESPN+, SN, CBC, TVAS
The site to follow: Litter Box Cats (Panthers) Oilers Nation (Oilers)
Betting favorite per ESPN – There are no favorites: Florida Panthers -110, Edmonton Oilers -110
Well now. No one really thought they’d drag this thing out this far now did they? Somehow, against all reasonable thought, the Edmonton Oilers have come back from down three-games-to-zero to force a winner-take-all Game 7. Indeed, who would have thunk it?
Honestly, if it wasn’t for the heroics of Sergei Bobrovsky in Game 1, an argument could be made that this series would have ended in Game 6 with the Oilers lifting the Stanley Cup on home ice. After all, Edmonton was the better team for most of the first game, only to see chance after chance swatted away by the Florida netminder. The Panthers rebounded and were the better team in Games 2 and 3 (both wins by Florida), but Edmonton curb-stomped them in Game 4 and then held onto leads in Games 5 and 6 to tie up the series. So, from a certain point of view, the Panthers are lucky that it’s going back to Sunrise for Game 7.
Now, after two days we are at a place we haven’t been since 2019 – a Stanley Cup Game 7. Back in 2019, it was St. Louis, a team that struggled early, fired their coach and rallied to make the Finals (sound familiar), that pulled off the victory. Granted, that series was a little more even as the teams alternated wins throughout, but the Blues did win a road game to clinch the Cup, something that Edmonton can draw on for inspiration.
As for Florida, they can also draw on the fact that St. Louis lost Game 6 with a chance to clinch, but came back to win Game 7. The Panthers can also rest their cap on the fact they haven’t lost four games in a row all season. While the two-day travel breaks have seemingly prolonged this series needlessly, it has also ruined almost any sense of momentum, so Florida also has a chance to reset a bit as they head into the most important game in their franchise history.
For the first time in his Edmonton career, the Oilers won a game in which McDavid was held without a point or a shot on goal. That’s not just in the playoffs, but in regular season as well. The team had previously been 0-and-7 in those situations, which is pretty impressive, both for the fact that it’s only happened seven times since 2015, and that they hadn’t found a way to win without his direct input. Unfortunately for the Panthers, it’s highly unlikely it will happen for a second game in a row, so they need to be ready for a big game from the best player in hockey.
Could Game 7 also be the game where Leon Draisaitl finally breaks through? McDavid’s running mate has been fairly quiet in the first six games with just 2 assists in 77:01 of 5v5 play according to Natural Stat Trick. He’s only generated a 0.54 iXG, which is 8th on the Oilers, behind other forwards such as Warren Foegele (0.7) and former Bolt Adam Henrique (0.69). Draisaitl is also tied for 6th in scoring chances for the Oilers with just 7, very unlike the prolific scorer.
While he’s been held off of the scoresheet on special teams, at least he is generating a few more chances with a team-leading 1.21 iXG and 16 shot attempts. For a player who has 31 points (10 goals, 21 assists) in the playoffs, it feels like it’s just a matter of time he starts finding the back of the net. Florida fans hope it’s not tonight.
Speaking of finding the back of the net, it feels like the Panthers power play has to break through at some point as well, right? There are just too many offensive weapons for them to be 1-for-19 with the extra skater in this series. Fun fact, with 2 shorthanded goals allowed, they’re actually upside down in the goals for/goals against category on the power play against the Oilers. The question tonight will be if they can relax with the man-advantage and take what they are given, or will they be pressing too much, and will an early unsuccessful power play get in their heads?
After bolstering his Conn Smythe case in the first three games of the series with 3 wins, a .953 SV%, and a 5.29 GSAx, Sergei Bobrovsky crashed back to earth over the last three games with 3 losses, a .793 SV%, and a -6.86 GSAx. Yes, it hasn’t totally been on him, but he’s let in some questionable goals such as:
Yikes.
Still, he’s Sergei Bobrovsky and can steal a game at any time. After not practicing on Sunday (something that he normally didn’t do during the regular season) has he cleared his head to the point where he’s back to the goaltender that has bailed his team out all season long? One of the biggest keys to the Oilers comeback has been their ability to expose the Florida forecheck and score on transition plays. For most of the playoffs, when the Panthers have had breakdowns, Officer Bob has been able to make the initial save and then see his teammates clear out any second chances. That hasn’t been the case in Games 4 through 6.
Honestly, none of this, or any other analysis that you have read over the last few days matters. It’s Game 7, baby! Throw everything out, and just enjoy it. Of course, that’s easy for us to say as we don’t have a side in the fight (despite our temporary Edmonton fandom). As Lighting fans we can just sit back and watch Connor McDavid finally drag his teammates to the promised land, or we can enjoy Florida finally clinching their first Stanley Cup in franchise history after two consecutive cracks at it.
