To paraphrase the son of a son of a plumber, “So Raw Charge, what do you want to talk about?”
I suppose there is really only one thing on all of our minds (other than if Randy Arozarena can remember how to hit home runs) and that is the undisputed fact that the Tampa Bay Lightning, despite some trials and tribulations, are back where they belong – the NHL playoffs. Right now, we’re just going to talk vibes. No research, no fancy stats, no non-fancy stats. There’s time for that later. Let’s just go with how we’re feeling.
To be honest, we’re not feeling too bad about things. It hasn’t been the smoothest season, but the Lightning still managed to get to 98 points and their .598 points percentage is tied with last year’s team for 10th best in franchise history. Dang it, that sounds like a stat. Oh well. Hopefully, that’s the only one.
It was an odd trip to get to where they’re at. The vibes were kind of shaky from the beginning with the signing and then terminating of Josh Archibald’s contract. The shakiness continued with Andrei Vasilevskiy undergoing back surgery and missing the first 20+ games of the season. Then there was the succession of players like Conor Sheary missing time with minor injuries. Throw in Mikhail Sergachev fracturing two bones in one leg and there was a stretched where it seemed like every other player in the line-up was making his NHL and/or Lightning debut.
Still, despite the constant line-up shuffle, and some spotty depth scoring, the Bolts relied on a super-potent top line and a league-leading power play unit to right the ship and claim a playoff spot. There are a lot of ways to get to the magic number of 90+ points to make it into the Eastern Conference’s top eight teams. You can steadily compile points all season long (Florida), start off hot and coast in (Boston), or bumble through the first couple of months and then use two hot streaks to get into position (Tampa Bay). A strong run in December and then another one in February and March were enough to push the Lightning into the wild card and secure a date with their in-state hockey brethren, the Florida Panthers.
It seems some of the models out there point to the Panthers having a distinct advantage in this series (looking at you, The Athletic) which, on paper, is probably right. They are a lot deeper than when these two teams met in previous postseason (both of which the Lightning won) and Sergei Bobrovsky is playing like the $10 million goalie they need him to be. The Bolts are the underdog in this series, and will be in any other one they have this spring.
After a run as one of the alpha dogs in the NHL, it’s kind of nice to not be the favorite again. Yes, in our eyes this iteration of the Lightning is still the two-time Stanley Cup, three-time Finalist Tampa Bay Lightning, but, as Coach Cooper likes to point out, less than half of the team on the ice right now raised the Cup in 2021. The core is still there, but this ain’t the same team. We’re not saying they’re the scrappy “just happy to be here” team that’s out-punching their weight class (that’s the Capitals) but they’re also not a team that is supposed to be in the Eastern Conference Final. So, it will be a fun ride if they start knocking off the contenders.
Do we think they can do it? Sure, why not? Florida is really good, but can the Bolts exploit their defense? Boston has the two-headed goaltending monster, but what about their depth. The Rangers and Carolina – how many times do they have to disappoint in the postseason before folks give up on them? The Islanders could win it all or get swept. The Caps have to be exhausted after the madness they went through to even get into the postseason and can they rely on The Outlaw and Josie to keep bailing them out? So, why not the Lightning?
Yes, they still rely on the power play a bit too much to score goals, but we all know the refs like to call a bunch of penalties early in the first round, so they can use that to their advantage. As the season has continued, the depth scoring has picked up. Steven Stamkos found his 5v5 scoring tough and Nick Paul didn’t go into a half-season slump like he did last year. Heck, even Tanner Jeannot scored a goal in the last week of the season.
We’re not liking the fact that the best defensive forwards in Anthony Cirelli, Tyler Motte, and Luke Glendening are probably playing through some type of injury, especially against the high-pressure system the Panthers like to run, but it’s likely the Florida guys aren’t playing at 100% either. If the third line can step up the defensive play, it’ll be a big help.
With all of the new faces and injuries, it did seem like it took most of the season for Coach Cooper to get comfortable with the lines. The addition of Anthony Duclair was huge as it allowed him to push Brandon Hagel down to the second line and get Nick Paul into a nice center role on the third line. Mitchell Chaffee’s play on that line has been huge as well even if he isn’t pouring goals into the net. For the first time all season, if everyone is able to go, it seems like the Bolts have set lines.
It’ll be fun to see if Duclair has some motivation in playing his old team. Despite his blossoming into a goal scorer during his time in Sunrise, they didn’t sign him to a long-term deal, so there has to be a little bit of a chip on his shoulder heading into the series. There is also the fact that he played with a lot of the forwards on the Panthers and should have a good idea of their tendencies. It’s not quite John Gruden knowing the Raiders play calls heading into their Super Bowl against the Bucs, but he should be able to give his new teammates an idea what his old teammates like to do in certain situations.
Besides the Lightning have Vasy. It took some time following the injury, but by the end of the season, we were seeing signs of the pre-injured Andrei Vasilevskiy. He was moving around in his crease really well and tracking pucks. Even the goals he was allowing over the last week or so were usually more on the defenders in front of him instead of him (think of those backdoor goals Buffalo scored). Playoff Vasy is a different beast all together when he’s not nursing a back injury, so look for him to be extra motivated to show that his series against the Maple Leafs last season was an outlier.
We’re not quite ready to say the Lightning are going to win the series without a doubt, but they have a better than even chance of pulling off the upset. It would make for a nice story, wouldn’t it. The former champs, written off due to age and roster decimation, putting one last ride together for Steven Stamkos and the Electric Mayhem. Maybe, just maybe, like the American Nightmare, they can finish their story.
Stay tuned for a more detailed look at this series…
