For the umpteenth year in a row, the Tampa Bay Lightning don’t have to lose any sleep in regards to how the Ping Pong balls will fall in regards to the NHL draft. The order, or at least the order for the first 16 picks of the draft, will be determined tonight as the league conducts their annual draft lottery. The Lightning, who traded their 2024 first round pick to the Chicago Blackhawks as part of the Brandon Hagel deal, wouldn’t have been involved in the lottery due to the fact that they made the playoffs. With their elimination in the first round that traded pick ended up as the 20th in the draft.
The draft lottery will take place at 6:30 PM tonight and will be shown on ESPN and streamed on ESPN+. Actually, the lottery will take place earlier in the day, but the reveal of the order will begin at 6:30 PM. Of the 16 teams, only 11 have a shot at claiming the number one spot due to the NHL’s rule that a team can only move up two spots. If a team in spots 12-16 wins the lottery, they will move up the appropriate ten spots and the team with the worst record (San Jose) will get the top spot.
If that isn’t fun enough, there is actually a second drawing for the next spot. Again, if a team in spots 13-16 wins, they move up their 10 spots and the next lowest team gets pick number two. Fourteen Ping Pong balls are thrown into a lottery machine that spits out four different numbers. Math says that there are 1001 possible combinations. Teams are assigned their random four-digit combinations with the team with the worst record (San Jose) receiving 185 different combinations, giving them an 18.5% chance of winning the lottery.
In descending order of odds, the teams that can win the Macklin Celebrini sweepstakes are:
Chicago – 13.5%
Anaheim – 11.5%
Columbus – 9.5%
Montreal – 8.5%
Utah – 7.5%
Ottawa – 6.5%
Seattle – 6.0%
Calgary – 5%
New Jersey – 3.5%
Buffalo – 3%
One team not listed, that will be taking an interest in the lottery is Pittsburgh. As of right now they are slotted to pick 14th. However, they traded that pick to San Jose in the Erik Karlsson deal. There is one condition on the pick – if it ends up as a top-10 selection, Pittsburgh can keep it and San Jose will receive their 2025 first-round pick.
Calgary currently has a pick that is slotted for the ninth-spot. There are a ton of conditions attached to it that involve Montreal and Florida, so, we’ll wait to see what the lottery balls say before delving into that one.
This year’s draft has a pretty clear cut number-one pick in Celebrini, the youngest Hobey Baker winner in collegiate history. This year’s first round isn’t considered to be as deep as last year’s, but should produce some solid NHL’ers, especially on defense.
As things stand, the Lightning don’t have a pick until the 5th round. After that, they have one pick in the sixth and then three in the seventh. With a couple of months until the actual draft, there is the chance that they make a deal to acquire a higher pick, especially if there is a player they really like available.
The draft, which is scheduled to take place from June 28-29 in Las Vegas, is likely to be the last in-person draft for the league. Moving forward, the league will move to a decentralized format, allowing the teams to make their selections from their own locations. It will, however, prevent us from seeing Commissioner Bettman awkwardly shake hands with number one picks.
Other Hockey News
Report: Hugo Alnefelt heading back to Sweden [Expressen]
Reports out of Sweden are that Hugo Alnefelt will be heading back to HV71, the club he played with before heading to North America, next season. As a pending restricted free agent, the Lightning would retain his rights as long as they make him a qualifying offer. Alnefelt has yet to make a start in the playoffs for the Crunch as Brandon Halverson seized the starter’s role while Matt Tomkins was in Tampa. Neither the Crunch nor the Lightning have confirmed the move (and likely wouldn’t until after Syracuse’s season is over).
Benoit Groulx heading to the KHL [Traktor Hockey Club (translated)]
After spending a year away from coaching, former Syracuse Crunch head coach Benoit Groulx is heading to the KHL to coach Traktor. Based on the translation, Groulx signed a two-year deal with the club that finished sixth in the KHL’s eastern conference last season.
Travis Green expected to be next Senators coach [Ottawa Citizen]
It appears his recent stint as the Devils’ interim head coach was enough for Ottawa to hire him as their next head coach.
Rick Bowness to step down as Winnipeg coach [Winnipeg Sun]
After 38 seasons in the NHL, the former Lightning assistant coach is hanging up the suits and retiring. He’ll go out on a high note with the Jets 52 wins tying a franchise record and earning him a spot as a Jack Adams finalist.
